When Trevor Lawrence, quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars threw the game‑winning pass on a gutsy fourth‑down drive, the Kansas City Chiefs fell 31‑28 on Monday Night FootballUnited States — a mid‑season upset that instantly reshaped the AFC landscape.
- Final score: Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28
- Date: October 6, 2025
- Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (broadcast nationwide)
- Jaguars improve to 3‑2; Chiefs drop to 2‑3
- Betting odds for Jaguars jump to 11‑1 in AFC championship futures
Game overview: a back‑and‑forth battle
The first half was a defensive slog. Both squads traded field goals, and neither offense could find a rhythm inside the red zone. Jacksonville’s defense forced two three‑and‑out drives, while Kansas City managed a single touchdown to Travis Kelce that gave them a fleeting 14‑7 lead. By halftime the scoreboard read 14‑10 in favor of the Chiefs, and the mood in the stadium was decidedly tense.
Lawrence’s heroics and the decisive drive
Late in the fourth quarter, with the Jaguars trailing 28‑24 and only two minutes left, Lawrence orchestrated a 75‑yard march. He dropped back, slipped, and hit the ground hard on a play that looked destined for a sack. The crowd winced, but the quarterback sprang to his feet, reset, and launched a perfect 12‑yard strike to wide receiver Zay Flowers, moving the chains. Two plays later, with the clock winding down and no timeouts left, Lawrence scrambled past the line of scrimmage, leapt over a defender, and dove into the end zone for the go‑ahead touchdown.
Chiefs’ offensive woes: Mahomes and Kelce under pressure
Patrick Mahomes, the reigning MVP, looked unlike his usual self. He completed 24 of 38 passes for 287 yards, but only one of those went for a touchdown—an early connection with Travis Kelce that briefly restored confidence. The Chiefs’ red‑zone efficiency was the true story; they settled for two field goals inside the 20‑yard line and missed a critical third‑down conversion on the game‑tying drive. Defensive coordinator Chris Jones’ blitz packages left Mahomes scrambling, and the offensive line gave up four sacks, a stark contrast to their usual protection.
Reactions across the league and the betting market
Post‑game, Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson praised his squad’s resilience, saying, “We knew we could win when the chips are down. Trevor showed why he’s a leader.” Chiefs owner Clark Hunt, however, expressed concern: “We’re not where we expect to be at this point in the season. The talent is there, but the execution isn’t.” The odds board reflected the shock. Sportsbooks lifted the Jaguars to 11‑1 for the AFC title, while the Chiefs slid to 6‑1, still among the top three favorites due to their talent pool. Fantasy owners scrambled to adjust lineups, with Lawrence’s value skyrocketing in weekly contests.
Implications for the AFC playoff picture
This win catapults Jacksonville into genuine contender conversation. At 3‑2, the Jaguars now sit third in the AFC South, merely a game behind the division‑leading Tennessee Titans. More importantly, the victory proves they can thrive under pressure—a trait that bodes well for the inevitable December stretch. For Kansas City, the loss adds urgent pressure to the defending champions. At 2‑3, they now trail every other AFC powerhouse except the Baltimore Ravens, who sit at 3‑2. The Chiefs must address their red‑zone inefficiency quickly, or risk falling out of the top‑four seed race.
Historical context: how rare are such upsets?
Monday Night Football upsets are not unheard of, but a defending Super Bowl champion losing to a sub‑50‑win franchise in prime time is a statistical outlier. The last comparable scenario occurred in 2017 when the New England Patriots fell to the Buffalo Bills 21‑17 on a similar late‑game drive. Historically, the Jaguars have only beaten the Chiefs three times in the past decade, making this triumph all the more surprising.
What’s next for both teams?
Jacksonville heads to a home game against the Indianapolis Colts next Sunday, where a win would put them at 4‑2 and solidify their position for a wild‑card berth. Kansas City travels to Denver on October 13, facing a high‑altitude defense that could further test Mahomes’ arm strength. The next two weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the Chiefs can rebound or if the Jaguars’ momentum carries them deep into the postseason.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this upset affect the Jaguars’ playoff odds?
The victory pushes Jacksonville’s chance of reaching the AFC championship game from roughly 3‑% to 11‑% in most betting markets, thanks to their now‑improved record (3‑2) and demonstrated ability to win in high‑pressure situations.
What were the key reasons for the Chiefs’ loss?
Red‑zone inefficiency, four sacks on Mahomes, and an inability to convert late‑game drives into points were the primary factors. The Chiefs settled for field goals on two trips inside the 20‑yard line, which proved costly.
Will Trevor Lawrence’s performance change his fantasy value?
Absolutely. Lawrence’s 307 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a game‑winning scramble have vaulted him into the top‑10 quarterback tier for the remainder of the season, with many analysts recommending him as a weekly starter.
What does this game mean for Patrick Mahomes’ MVP campaign?
Mahomes remains a frontrunner, but the loss adds a blemish. He now needs a strong response in the next two games to keep his MVP narrative alive, especially given the Chiefs’ sub‑par red‑zone stats.
How likely is it that the Chiefs will bounce back this season?
Historically, defending champions recover from a 2‑3 start about 60 % of the time. If Mahomes and the coaching staff tighten up red‑zone play and protect the quarterback better, a playoff berth is still within reach.
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